Will I still think ergocidity economics is crankery at the end of March 2027?
One-OffMacro et économie5moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 97%
Prévisionnistes
2
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète17 mars 26, 06:52 UTC31 mars 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Robin Hanson receive the Nobel Prize in Economics?
Manifold MarketsBillionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
PolymarketJobs numbers in October 2026?
KalshiWill GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
KalshiPort of New York and New Jersey container volume in 2026
KalshiRègles
Presently I think ergocidity economics (Ole Peters's theory about how looking at the behavior over time of single rollouts of a random process is better than textbook expected utility calculations over the distribution of all possible rollouts) is probably crankery.
- Other mathematically inclined people, including ones I have some reason to respect, feel differently.
- This market is to help me decide whether to be louder in public about this view and to provide a prize of valuable internet points to anyone who talks me around within a year.
- I intend to resolve YES or NO (currently I intend to resolve YES) but may resolve PROB if I feel nontrivially unsure.
- The last time I spent much brainpower on Ole Peters: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gptXmhJxFiEwuPN98/meetup-notes-ole-peters-on-ergodicity#Paper__The_time_resolution_of_the_St_Petersburg_Paradox