Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 89.1%
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète14 août 25, 04:32 UTC30 avr. 27, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What will the next Bond film make at the box office?
Manifold MarketsWill Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sanchez get Divorced/ Separate in 2027?
Manifold MarketsNext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
KalshiNext James Bond film: Actress cast as Bond girl
KalshiNext James Bond film: Artist performing the James Bond Theme
KalshiNext James Bond film: Actor cast as the villain
KalshiRègles
[image]Resolves YES if Lauren Sanchez has a speaking role in the next major James Bond film, or if she's centrally on screen for any scene (even if the role is non-speaking).
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- NOTE: I'm adding this higher bar because I want to capture "the sort of casting that would annoy people"—if she shows up as a cameo in the background, it really doesn't matter.
- So if she says any words, that automatically is enough to resolve YES (even if it's a tiny role).
- But if she's a key part of any single scene (e.g., you see her in peril in some action scene), that resolves YES as well.
- My intuitive bar will be roughly "someone be certain to notice her role in the movie if they were looking for it" (if most people watching the movie would have no clue who her character is, e.g., a background cameo, I don't want to resolve it YES).
