Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 89.1%
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète14 août 25, 04:32 UTC30 avr. 27, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What will the next Bond film make at the box office?
Manifold MarketsNext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
KalshiNext James Bond film: Actor cast as the villain
KalshiNext James Bond film: Actress cast as Bond girl
KalshiWho will direct the next James Bond Film?
Manifold MarketsWho will sing the next James Bond film theme song?
Manifold MarketsRègles
[image]Resolves YES if Lauren Sanchez has a speaking role in the next major James Bond film, or if she's centrally on screen for any scene (even if the role is non-speaking).
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- NOTE: I'm adding this higher bar because I want to capture "the sort of casting that would annoy people"—if she shows up as a cameo in the background, it really doesn't matter.
- So if she says any words, that automatically is enough to resolve YES (even if it's a tiny role).
- But if she's a key part of any single scene (e.g., you see her in peril in some action scene), that resolves YES as well.
- My intuitive bar will be roughly "someone be certain to notice her role in the movie if they were looking for it" (if most people watching the movie would have no clue who her character is, e.g., a background cameo, I don't want to resolve it YES).
Marchés ouverts
Europe
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-3.9pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 494,6 k €
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- No-3.0pt84.2%
- Yes+3.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- 809,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 123,4 k €
POLYMARKETNext Prime Minister of Sweden
- Magdalena Andersson+0.5pt77.5%
- Ulf Kristersson-1.0pt20.6%
- Jimmie Åkesson-0.4pt1%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETECB Interest Rates: September 2026
- 25 bps increase-0.1pt100%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
- 25 bps decrease0%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- December 3122%
- October 31+2.0pt10%
- December 31, 2025-0.1pt0%
+3 résultats de plus
- Berlin State Election Winner
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
- Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: M Vote Share?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: SD Vote Share?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: 5th Place
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Lauren Sanchez in the next Bond film? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 89% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Lauren Sanchez in the next Bond film? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Lauren Sanchez in the next Bond film? doit être résolu le 30 avril 2027.
- Comment Lauren Sanchez in the next Bond film? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : [image]Resolves YES if Lauren Sanchez has a speaking role in the next major James Bond film, or if she's centrally on screen for any scene (even if the role is non-speaking).