Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 94.2%
Prévisionnistes
23
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète10 sept. 24, 05:42 UTC17 sept. 29, 20:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will AI be better every human at proving Math theorems by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill xAI release a game made entirely with AI that is better made than the best made Roblox game in the next 5 yrs?
Manifold MarketsWhen will AI be better at Captcha than an average human
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Center for AI Safety announced a forecasting AI that allegedly outperforms Metaculus.
- However, Oliver Habryka and Gwern raised concerns about data contamination.
- If a reliable (according to me) test is performed, will FiveThirtyNine be found to outperform Metaculus?
- If all concerns with the current test will be convincingly debunked, the market will resolve YES.
- If a new test will involve Metaculus forecasts that contain similar AI in the aggregate, it will not be sufficient for a NO resolution.
- If no such test is performed by closing date, it will resolve MKT.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Is FiveThirtyNine AI better than Metaculus? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 94% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Is FiveThirtyNine AI better than Metaculus? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Is FiveThirtyNine AI better than Metaculus? doit être résolu le 17 septembre 2029.
- Comment Is FiveThirtyNine AI better than Metaculus? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Center for AI Safety announced a forecasting AI that allegedly outperforms Metaculus.