Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
2029 17.9%En tête parmi 13 options
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète16 sept. 23, 15:03 UTC1 janv. 36, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will SpaceX launch 2 starships within 24 hours?
Manifold MarketsHow many Starships will launch before a Starship lands on the Moon?
Manifold MarketsWhen will SpaceX launch Dragon CRS-35
KalshiWill SpaceX launch a non-SpaceX payload on Starship before 2030?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars by the end of 2026?
FutuurSpaceX to launch a manned mission to Mars by the end of 2028?
FutuurRègles
First year where (number of Starship launches that year) > (number of Falcon 9 launches that year).
- Any launch that clears the pad counts as a launch.
- Suborbital launches count.
- Falcon Heavy doesn't count towards the Falcon 9 number.
- If either rocket is renamed but is still obviously the same rocket, it still counts towards its previous name.
- If either rocket is redesigned but keeps the same name, it still counts.
Marchés ouverts
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3 M €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 802,6 k €
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,547.84 target
- Yes60%
- No40%
- Volume total
- 736,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 585,6 k €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.4%
- 200-219+8.0pt22.9%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.1%
+23 résultats de plus
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Where will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour In what year will SpaceX first launch Starship more times than Falcon 9? ?
- Manifold Markets cote 2029 à 18% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand In what year will SpaceX first launch Starship more times than Falcon 9? sera-t-il résolu ?
- In what year will SpaceX first launch Starship more times than Falcon 9? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2036.
- Comment In what year will SpaceX first launch Starship more times than Falcon 9? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : First year where (number of Starship launches that year) > (number of Falcon 9 launches that year).