Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 21:52 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Nov 16 to Nov 30, 2026 49.8%En tête parmi 5 options
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7
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multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Prévision
Variation 7j
+11.1 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète8 oct. 26, 22:37 UTC30 nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will SpaceX launch a Starship to Mars by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will SpaceX first launch Starship more times than Falcon 9?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars by the end of 2026?
FutuurStarship Flight 15: what happens to the ship? (first tower catch attempt, by Nov 30)
Manifold MarketsWill the Super Heavy booster explode during Starship Flight 15?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves to the bucket containing the liftoff date (UTC) of SpaceX's Starship Flight 15 (the 15th integrated Starship/Super Heavy test flight, the 4th Starship V3 flight).
- Source: SpaceX's official launch page / webcast (spacex.com/launches), cross-checked against Wikipedia's "List of Starship launches".
- Liftoff is what counts; a scrub, static fire, or wet dress rehearsal does not.
- the named outcome
