Ce marché s'est résolu: 2026 (97.6%)
Résolu: 27 oct. 2026, 15:06
Résolution vérifiée par le fournisseur
CoinRithm dispose d'éléments du fournisseur pour le gagnant et l'heure de règlement de ce marché.
Résultat Gagnant
2026
À 7 jours
—
À 24 heures
—
Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 27 oct. 2026, 19:50 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Chronologie des Probabilités
20250.6%
202697.6%
20270.7%
20280.6%
20290.4%
Gagné
Perdu
Perdu
Perdu
Perdu
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GSO benchmark?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRègles
GPQA is a graduate-level, 448-item multiple-choice benchmark covering biology, chemistry and physics; it was designed to be “Google-proof,” defeating web-search tricks and challenging even PhD holders ― human experts average ≈ 65% accuracy, while skilled non-experts manage only 34%.
- Because GPQA questions are publicly released, leaderboard results come from independent community test harnesses (e.g., Vellum AI, LLM-Stats, xAI livestreams).
- The best-known AI score today (July 2025) is 88.4%
- Resolution criteria
- The market resolves to the first year in which ALL the following conditions hold:
- Score threshold – A single fully-autonomous system achieves ≥ 95% average accuracy on the standard 448-question GPQA.