Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNever 71.8%En tête parmi 32 options
Prévisionnistes
27
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète17 juin 22, 22:05 UTC1 janv. 31, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
0.3%
0.1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will China invade Taiwan by EOY 2030
Manifold MarketsIf China does not invade Taiwan by 2024-12-31, will it invade Taiwan by 2030-12-31?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria: The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan* Or At least 1000 military personnel from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule.
- *The date that is reported within the articles rather than the date of publication of the articles, will be considered the invasion date.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.1pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.4pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 643,2 k €
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-8.0pt72%
- September 18-7.5pt68%
- September 11-10.5pt60%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.5pt49.6%
- October 31-1.0pt29.6%
- September 30-3.5pt12.2%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+5.0pt81%
- Yes-5.0pt19%
- Volume total
- 9,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 261 k €
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.2pt1%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour In what month will China invade Taiwan? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Never à 72% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand In what month will China invade Taiwan? sera-t-il résolu ?
- In what month will China invade Taiwan? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2031.
- Comment In what month will China invade Taiwan? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria: The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan* Or At least 1000 military personnel from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule.