Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 70.5%
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 18 heures
Obsolète20 juil. 24, 22:41 UTC2 janv. 28, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt?
Manifold MarketsIn early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
Manifold MarketsIn early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie from a script?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Must be >=8:00 minutes, single prompt (of whatever length) without revisions
- Must have the distinctive Skibidi feel
- The story must be broadly consistent with the Skibidi canon
- The AI-generated episode(s) must be made publicly available and have >1M views in aggregate
- Subjective, so I will not trade in this market.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full Skibidi Toilet episode to a prompt? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 71% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full Skibidi Toilet episode to a prompt? sera-t-il résolu ?
- In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full Skibidi Toilet episode to a prompt? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2028.
- Comment In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full Skibidi Toilet episode to a prompt? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Must be >=8:00 minutes, single prompt (of whatever length) without revisions