In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?
DivertissementIAOne-Off1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 78%
Prévisionnistes
372
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 minutes
28 janv. 24, 04:34 UTC2 janv. 28, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?
Manifold MarketsTime's Person of the Year for 2026
KalshiWhich companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
KalshiTIME Person of the Year 2026
PolymarketRègles
Same as the main market but the AI must only be at the level of the worst filmmakers, rather than the best.
- So instead of a Marvel movie level of quality, think The Room level of quality.
- That's the yardstick that I will be using.
- Alternatively it can be any other well-known bad movie, like Birdemic or Who Killed Captain Alex.
- It doesn't need to have the "so bad it's good" qualities of The Room, but it needs to have a minimally coherent plot structure and cinematography.
- It must not be too painful for humans to watch the entire thing, and it needs to have the basics like characters say and do things that advance the plot, at least usually.
Marchés ouverts
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+18.0pt69.6%
- 940 - 950m-16.5pt26.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 319,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 98 k €
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+25.0pt67%
- Callum Turner-3.0pt21%
- Jack Barton-8.0pt20%
+27 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,8 M €
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+23.4pt48%
- No Bond chosen-6.3pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.5pt9%
+21 résultats de plus
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 80 k €
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 130,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 45,3 k €
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 4 M €
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 78% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt? sera-t-il résolu ?
- In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2028.
- Comment In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Same as the main market but the AI must only be at the level of the worst filmmakers, rather than the best.