Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Helped with >80% confidence 64.1%En tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète30 mars 23, 02:17 UTC1 janv. 31, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Règles
https://time.com/6266923/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-open-letter-not-enough/
Marchés ouverts
AI
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 5.6%+8.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 267,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 95,6 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.3pt69.2%
- ChatGPT-1.1pt13.5%
- Gemini+1.3pt10.6%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10,1 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-5.0pt72%
- December 15,+4.5pt65%
- November 30,-7.0pt44%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.65%+4.0pt99%
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.55%99%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 272 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+8.0pt99%
- Above 24%+6.0pt99%
- Above 23.6%99%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 211,1 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T-0.4pt25.3%
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt20%
- $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt16.8%
+7 résultats de plus
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best AI this week
- Next Claude Opus released on?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour In 2030, will Yudkowsky think his 2023 Time op-ed helped or harmed our chances? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Helped with >80% confidence à 64% au 20 septembre 2026.
- Quand In 2030, will Yudkowsky think his 2023 Time op-ed helped or harmed our chances? sera-t-il résolu ?
- In 2030, will Yudkowsky think his 2023 Time op-ed helped or harmed our chances? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2031.
- Comment In 2030, will Yudkowsky think his 2023 Time op-ed helped or harmed our chances? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : https://time.com/6266923/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-open-letter-not-enough/