Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Helped with >60% confidence 60.8%En tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète30 mars 23, 02:50 UTC1 janv. 31, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
In 2030, will Yudkowsky think his 2023 Time op-ed helped or harmed our chances?
Manifold MarketsWill humanity wipe out AI x-risk before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Pope Leo XIV cite in his text the CAIS Statement on AI Risk before 2028?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketTencent market share this week
KalshiRègles
https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/
- 90% chance of resolving to market probs; 10% chance (through RNG), I reach out to folks and look to average the opinions of a sample of AI x-risk ~macrostrategy folks (aiming for ~30% from frontier lab alignment and governance teams; ~15% each for relevant GovAI + Rethink Priorities + Open Philanthropy researchers; ~12.5% for each of Eliezer Yudkowsky and Buck Shlegris).
- Will make a good faith effort to iterate on resolution criteria in response to feedback during first week.
- Mar 30, 8:41am: In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed AI x-risk chances? → In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed our AI x-risk chances?
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.6pt68.9%
- ChatGPT+0.4pt12.6%
- Gemini+1.6pt10.7%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10 M €
- Volume 24h
- 87,4 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-11.0pt69%
- December 15,-8.5pt65%
- November 30,-5.0pt50%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 5.6%+18.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 228,5 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+13.0pt99%
- Above 24.7%+30.0pt99%
- Above 23.6%+1.0pt99%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T+0.1pt25%
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt19.8%
- $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt16.7%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.55%99%
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.25%99%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 239,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 53,3 k €
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic lab leak by which date?
- Best AI this week
- When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed our AI x-risk chances? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Helped with >60% confidence à 61% au 20 septembre 2026.
- Quand In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed our AI x-risk chances? sera-t-il résolu ?
- In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed our AI x-risk chances? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2031.
- Comment In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed our AI x-risk chances? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/