Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 74.5%
Prévisionnistes
147
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète20 févr. 23, 22:35 UTC1 janv. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will AI technology lead to higher or lower US inflation rates by end of June 2027
Manifold MarketsWhich companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
PolymarketWill Google still be a big tech giant by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsBig Tech capital expenditures will exceed $500 billion in 2026
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRègles
That is, will Google, Facebook, Apple, etc be ahead of OpenAI, Anthropic, etc, in artificial intelligence?
- I will grade this as true if it seems obvious that they are ahead in most fields of AI.
- This will be based on technology; not commercialization; if OpenAI has an advanced AI sitting in a lab, but Google has a slightly weaker one that has made $10 billion, OpenAI will still win.
- Anything developed in-house at DeepMind will be considered to come from an AI-specific company; anything developed at the rest of Google will be Big Tech.
- If the distinction has blurred by 2028, I might resolve this as N/A if that becomes the deciding factor.
- If a Chinese or other foreign company is in the lead, I will resolve this based on whether they are the Chinese equivalent of Big Tech or a new AI specific company.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 5.6%+8.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 267,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 95,6 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.3pt69.2%
- ChatGPT-1.1pt13.5%
- Gemini+1.3pt10.6%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10,1 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-5.0pt72%
- December 15,+4.5pt65%
- November 30,-7.0pt44%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.65%+4.0pt99%
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.55%99%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 272 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+8.0pt99%
- Above 24%+6.0pt99%
- Above 23.6%99%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 211,1 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T-0.4pt25.3%
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt20%
- $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt16.8%
+7 résultats de plus
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best AI this week
- Next Claude Opus released on?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 75% au 20 septembre 2026.
- Quand In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology? sera-t-il résolu ?
- In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2028.
- Comment In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : That is, will Google, Facebook, Apple, etc be ahead of OpenAI, Anthropic, etc, in artificial intelligence?