If EY loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what are the reasons why? [INDEPENDENT MC]
IAOne-Off2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleStandards are revised: an explanation not worldview-shattering in 2023 now qualifies as such. 80%En tête parmi 14 options
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète2 sept. 25, 12:05 UTC2 janv. 29, 02:33 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
Manifold MarketsWhen will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?
Manifold Markets[Independent MC Version] If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reasons?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Inspired by this market: https://manifold.markets/RobertCousineau/if-eliezer-yudkowsky-loses-his-bet
- This market is independent to allow for overlapping answers, which will hopefully increase clarity and granularity and hopefully reduce controversy in resolution.
- Any option that is a significant reason as to why Eliezer Yudkowsky lost the bet resolves YES.
- For example, "time-traveling AIs are responsible for UFO sightings" would resolve both "Time travel." and "Artificial intelligence." YES.
- Resolves N/A if Yudkowsky wins the bet.
- Resolution will be based on statements from Yudkowsky, RatsWrongAboutUAP, or clear consensus about the circumstances of the bet.
