If EY loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what are the reasons why? [INDEPENDENT MC]
IAOne-Off2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleStandards are revised: an explanation not worldview-shattering in 2023 now qualifies as such. 80%En tête parmi 14 options
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète2 sept. 25, 12:05 UTC2 janv. 29, 02:33 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
Manifold MarketsWhen will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?
Manifold MarketsWill David Schneider-Joseph's bet about Beta Amyloids and Alzheimer's end up true within 12 years?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Inspired by this market: https://manifold.markets/RobertCousineau/if-eliezer-yudkowsky-loses-his-bet
- This market is independent to allow for overlapping answers, which will hopefully increase clarity and granularity and hopefully reduce controversy in resolution.
- Any option that is a significant reason as to why Eliezer Yudkowsky lost the bet resolves YES.
- For example, "time-traveling AIs are responsible for UFO sightings" would resolve both "Time travel." and "Artificial intelligence." YES.
- Resolves N/A if Yudkowsky wins the bet.
- Resolution will be based on statements from Yudkowsky, RatsWrongAboutUAP, or clear consensus about the circumstances of the bet.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour If EY loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what are the reasons why? [INDEPENDENT MC] ?
- Manifold Markets cote Standards are revised: an explanation not worldview-shattering in 2023 now qualifies as such. à 80% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand If EY loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what are the reasons why? [INDEPENDENT MC] sera-t-il résolu ?
- If EY loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what are the reasons why? [INDEPENDENT MC] doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2029.
- Comment If EY loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what are the reasons why? [INDEPENDENT MC] est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Inspired by this market: https://manifold.markets/RobertCousineau/if-eliezer-yudkowsky-loses-his-bet