If EY loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what are the reasons why? [INDEPENDENT MC]
IAOne-Off2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleStandards are revised: an explanation not worldview-shattering in 2023 now qualifies as such. 80%En tête parmi 14 options
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète2 sept. 25, 12:05 UTC2 janv. 29, 02:33 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
Manifold MarketsWhen will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?
Manifold Markets[Independent MC Version] If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reasons?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRègles
Inspired by this market: https://manifold.markets/RobertCousineau/if-eliezer-yudkowsky-loses-his-bet
- This market is independent to allow for overlapping answers, which will hopefully increase clarity and granularity and hopefully reduce controversy in resolution.
- Any option that is a significant reason as to why Eliezer Yudkowsky lost the bet resolves YES.
- For example, "time-traveling AIs are responsible for UFO sightings" would resolve both "Time travel." and "Artificial intelligence." YES.
- Resolves N/A if Yudkowsky wins the bet.
- Resolution will be based on statements from Yudkowsky, RatsWrongAboutUAP, or clear consensus about the circumstances of the bet.
