When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?
TechOne-Off18aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleBefore January 2040 10.4%En tête parmi 15 options
Prévisionnistes
112
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète23 nov. 23, 18:10 UTC1 janv. 45, 19:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
By what year will we know that any past UFO/UAP was really Alien technology?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
Manifold MarketsIf EY loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what are the reasons why? [INDEPENDENT MC]
Manifold MarketsIf Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?
Manifold MarketsBitcoin price at the end of 2026
KalshiBTC price on Oct 27, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRègles
See previously:
- @/Joshua/by-what-year-will-we-know-that-any
- @/Joshua/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-win-his-1500
- This is an unlinked market, so that each time period can resolve NO independently, or they can resolve YES all together.
- It also includes meta-options about the other options.
- An answer resolves NO if it arrives without there being proof of a UFO/UAP from before market creation having a worldview-shattering origin such as aliens, time-travelers, interdimensional travelers, secret superintelligence made by ancient humans, biblical demons, etc.
