Prévision communautaire actuelle
Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs. 47.5%En tête parmi 10 options
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète17 janv. 26, 21:35 UTC1 janv. 00, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Manifold MarketsIf Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer's "If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?" market resolve N/A?
Manifold MarketsIf Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?
Manifold MarketsWho is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRègles
This is an independent (aka unlinked) version of: https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/if-artificial-general-intelligence-539844cd3ba1
- I will add new options based on the following polls:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/4fa/multiselect-version-which-answers-t) (https://manifold.markets/embed/4fa/multiselect-version-which-answers-t-9O98NdAyP6) https://manifold.markets/4fa/which-answers-should-be-kept-when-m
- https://manifold.markets/4fa/google-form-in-description-which-an
- Original market's description:
- An outcome is "okay" if it gets at least 20% of the maximum attainable cosmopolitan value that could've been attained by a positive Singularity (a la full Coherent Extrapolated Volition done correctly), and existing humans don't suffer death or any other awful fates.
