If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?
IA
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Brakes hit 52%En tête parmi 13 options
Brakes hit 52%Prévisionnistes
25
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 24 minutes
24 mai 24, 20:48 UTC1 janv. 00, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
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PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRègles
An okay outcome is defined in Eliezer Yudkowsky's market as:
- An outcome is "okay" if it gets at least 20% of the maximum attainable cosmopolitan value that could've been attained by a positive Singularity (a la full Coherent Extrapolated Volition done correctly), and existing humans don't suffer death or any other awful fates.
- In response to Eliezer Yudkowsky's market, Rob Bensinger organized the scenarios with a set of tags giving them a pretty ontology.
- This market resolves YES for the tags that are true of the world when AI has an okay outcome.
- This is great, but the options are long, dense, and partly overlapping, in a way that made it trickier for me to assign relative probabilities.
- To help with that, I made this graphic putting the options in order and assigning tags to clusters of related scenarios.
