If AI has an okay outcome and there was no special effort, was it because alignment was easy?
IAOne-Off4a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 72.2%
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 18 heures
Obsolète7 avr. 26, 17:28 UTC7 avr. 31, 17:27 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If AI has an okay outcome, was it because of humanity doing something beyond business-as-usual?
Manifold MarketsIf AI has an okay outcome because of a huge alignment effort, where did AI progress stall out?
Manifold MarketsIf AI has an okay outcome because of a pause, will the exit strategy involve a new AI paradigm?
Manifold MarketsIf AI has an okay outcome because of a new paradigm, where did AI progress stall out?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
Resolves N/A if AI does not have an ok outcome, or if AI has an ok outcome because of a pause, human enhancement, a non-routine effort prioritizing alignment as a blocker on capabilities rather than happening alongside capabilities as a second priority, or some non-AI route to a transhumanist future.
- For example, if OpenAI or Anthropic's strategy worked, this market would not resolve N/A; they both have a "safety team" in a capabilities org, rather than a capabilities team in an alignment org, and are not pursuing alternate paths for a transhumanist future.
- Otherwise, resolves YES if alignment is easy, and NO otherwise. "Alignment is easy" means 6 or easier on the ten levels of alignment difficulty.