Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleSuperintelligent 66.6%En tête parmi 3 options
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète17 mars 26, 03:52 UTC17 mars 40, 03:51 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If AI has an okay outcome because of a new paradigm, where did AI progress stall out?
Manifold MarketsIf a huge alignment effort is part of the reason for AI having an okay outcome, will it involve a new AI paradigm?
Manifold MarketsIf AI has an okay outcome because of a pause, will the exit strategy involve a new AI paradigm?
Manifold MarketsIf AI has an okay outcome, was it because of humanity doing something beyond business-as-usual?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRègles
Resolves N/A if there is no huge alignment effort, or if there is not an okay outcome from AI.
- Otherwise, resolves at the level at which AI progress stalled out.
- An okay outcome:
- An outcome is "okay" if it gets at least 20% of the maximum attainable cosmopolitan value that could've been attained by a positive Singularity (a la full Coherent Extrapolated Volition done correctly), and existing humans don't suffer death or any other awful fates.
- A huge alignment effort is an unusual amount of effort being put specifically into alignment, as a separate project blocking capabilities, above business-as-usual, corresponding to a willingness to give up on two years of capabilities lead time in favour of alignment; "making alignment your top priority and working really hard to over-engineer your system for safety".
- If MIRI's agent foundations had worked perfectly, that would count; if there was a global ASI Project that took as long as it needed, that would count; if Anthropic RLHF'd Opus to support CEV, that would not count (the alignment is institutionally an optional extra on a capabilities project, aiming for an acceptable threshold of safety, rather than overengineering it).
