If AI has an okay outcome because of a new paradigm, where did AI progress stall out?
IA
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 00:10 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleSuperintelligent 81%En tête parmi 3 options
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète26 févr. 26, 16:34 UTC31 déc. 00, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If AI has an okay outcome because of a huge alignment effort, where did AI progress stall out?
Manifold MarketsIf a huge alignment effort is part of the reason for AI having an okay outcome, will it involve a new AI paradigm?
Manifold MarketsIf AI has an okay outcome because of a pause, will the exit strategy involve a new AI paradigm?
Manifold MarketsIf AI has an okay outcome, was it because of humanity doing something beyond business-as-usual?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRègles
Resolves N/A if AI going into the Future is built on deep learning, or a son-of-deep-learning that is not at all under human control, or if there is not an okay outcome from AI.
- Otherwise, resolves at the level at which AI progress stalled out.
- An okay outcome:
- An outcome is "okay" if it gets at least 20% of the maximum attainable cosmopolitan value that could've been attained by a positive Singularity (a la full Coherent Extrapolated Volition done correctly), and existing humans don't suffer death or any other awful fates.
- A new paradigm is any paradigm that is not deep learning.
- This includes currently known paradigms; being powerful enough to cause an okay outcome is a novel
