Who will be portrayed in the first Oscar-winning movie about real-life AI released before 2034?
IAOne-OffDivertissement7a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Sam Altman 80%En tête parmi 17 options
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète5 oct. 24, 04:15 UTC2 janv. 34, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
This market resolves based on the characters in the first movie to win an Oscar which depicts real-life settings and events of modern AI development.
- For each real-world person under this question, resolve YES if they, as a character (not necessarily a cameo), say more than one word during the movie, are audibly mentioned, or are visually depicted for more than 20 seconds in total.
- If no qualifying movie about AI has won an Oscar before 2033, all answers resolve NO.
- If an actor in the movie is not playing themselves, resolves YES for the character they depict rather than the actor.
- A significant portion of the movie (>30% of runtime) must be set in the 2020s decade.
- A qualifying movie does not need to be an entirely faithful depiction of historical events as long as the backdrop, setting, and characters are largely drawn from true history.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Who will be portrayed in the first Oscar-winning movie about real-life AI released before 2034? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Sam Altman à 80% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Who will be portrayed in the first Oscar-winning movie about real-life AI released before 2034? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Who will be portrayed in the first Oscar-winning movie about real-life AI released before 2034? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2034.
- Comment Who will be portrayed in the first Oscar-winning movie about real-life AI released before 2034? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market resolves based on the characters in the first movie to win an Oscar which depicts real-life settings and events of modern AI development.