Prévision communautaire actuelle
1 31.5%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète2 janv. 26, 21:50 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
KalshiWill Aliens be discovered in the next three years?
Manifold MarketsWhich of these hypothetical mathematical objects will be shown to exist with an explicit example before 2030?
Manifold MarketsBy when will we launch an interstellar vehicle?
Manifold MarketsWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiRègles
Resolves to the number of “Confirmed” interstellar objects discovered within 2026.
- If there’s a debate on what constitutes an interstellar object, I will use this Wikipedia article as a resolution source:
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object
- So far, there has not been much debate about the observed interstellar objects.
- Objects that had previously collided with earth and are discovered from archival or geological data would not count for the purposes of this market.
- If one is discovered close to the end of the year and doesn’t show up on Wikipedia until 2027, I may wait a bit after market close to see if it’s confirmed (if there’s doubt).
Marchés ouverts
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1 k €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume total
- 57,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4 k €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume total
- 817,9 k €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour How many interstellar objects will be discovered in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote 1 à 32% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand How many interstellar objects will be discovered in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- How many interstellar objects will be discovered in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment How many interstellar objects will be discovered in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves to the number of “Confirmed” interstellar objects discovered within 2026.