Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 67.9%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète22 juin 23, 01:52 UTC2 janv. 29, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000,000 people before 2029?
Manifold MarketsDoes an AI disaster kill at least 10,000,000 people before 2029?
Manifold MarketsDoes an AI disaster kill at least 100,000 people before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
-"Does": the main cause must have been the AI, not external circumstance.
- -"an": must be a single event (we are not combining unrelated smaller disasters).
- -"AI": must be a system (or multiple systems) that relied on artificial intelligence for its decisions.
- -"disaster": the AI must've done something that most smart people would say is malicious, reckless, or poor judgement.
- Unless the AI was directly following orders by a human who we agree was authorized to give those orders, then that doesn't count.
- -"kill": they must have deceased, not merely been injured/poisoned/etc.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Does an AI disaster kill at least 10,000 people before 2029? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 68% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Does an AI disaster kill at least 10,000 people before 2029? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Does an AI disaster kill at least 10,000 people before 2029? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2029.
- Comment Does an AI disaster kill at least 10,000 people before 2029? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : -"Does": the main cause must have been the AI, not external circumstance.