Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNo, nothing that creator considers wild happened 95%+45.0ptEn tête parmi 3 options
Prévisionnistes
20
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+45.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
14 sept. 26, 17:48 UTC14 oct. 26, 17:45 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Sam Altman leave open AI before 2028?
Manifold MarketsThe American open AI frontier will catch up to Chinese models in 2026
Manifold MarketsWill Sam Altman leave open AI before 2027?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Rob Wiblin (@robertwiblin) on X
- This tweet suggest something wild just happened at Open AI.
- Fact or crap? What happened?
- Feel free to add other answer choices.
- I will not bet on this market as soon as I can figure out how to click the button that bans me from betting.
- Update 2026-09-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the RSI (Recursive Self-Improvement) option:
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHIOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
- Above 67.5%99%
- Above 70%+22.0pt99%
- Above 72.5%96%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 63,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 63,6 k €
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-8.0pt79%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.8pt68.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt15.7%
- Gemini+0.2pt6.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,5 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,85%
- December 31,-3.5pt84%
- November 30,-2.0pt76%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- 1510+45.5pt100%
- 1520-9.9pt81%
- 1530-0.1pt4%
+2 résultats de plus
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude89.9%
- Gemini2.8%
- ChatGPT1.8%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 27,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 27,4 k €
- Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Did Something “Wild” Just Happen at Open AI? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No, nothing that creator considers wild happened à 95% au 15 septembre 2026.
- Quand Did Something “Wild” Just Happen at Open AI? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Did Something “Wild” Just Happen at Open AI? doit être résolu le 14 octobre 2026.
- Comment Did Something “Wild” Just Happen at Open AI? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Rob Wiblin (@robertwiblin) on X