Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 98.8%
Prévisionnistes
62
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard8 sept. 26, 06:03 UTC8 oct. 26, 06:03 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO?
Manifold MarketsNavier-Stokes Drama Prop Bets
Manifold MarketsWhich of Anthropic and OpenAI will get more credit for the Navier-Stokes solution, in my judgement?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
tristanbuckmaster (@[email protected])
- [link preview]Update 2026-09-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * Only the Millennium Prize formulation of the Navier-Stokes problem is valid for a YES resolution.
- Partial solutions or progress towards a solution will not count.
- Update 2026-09-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - To resolve YES, OpenAI must have found the full solution before this market was created.
- Update 2026-09-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The creator intends to resolve the market based on the Lean-verified proof rather than waiting for formal peer review.
- They will request a re-resolution if the proof is later found to be incorrect.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Did OpenAI just solve navier stokes?? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 99% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Did OpenAI just solve navier stokes?? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Did OpenAI just solve navier stokes?? doit être résolu le 8 octobre 2026.
- Comment Did OpenAI just solve navier stokes?? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : tristanbuckmaster (@[email protected])