Conditional on a Sicily-mainland bridge NOT being built, will unemployment in Sicily decrease wrt to Italy?
ÉconomieOne-Off19a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 54.6%
Prévisionnistes
1
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard26 oct. 23, 02:13 UTC1 janv. 46, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
If this market resolves NO https://manifold.markets/Ernie/bridge-built-connecting-mainland-it?r=TmFkaWFNYXRzaXVr I will call the year in which the market resolves t, the previous year t-1 and the next year t+1.
- I will compute (U(t+1) - U(t-1))/U(t) where U is the unemployment from ISTAT (http://dati.istat.it/Index.aspx?QueryId=20744&lang=en) for Sicily and for Italy as a whole.
- If the result is strictly smaller (with sign) for Sicily I will resolve YES as soon as the data becomes available for year t+1.
- Otherwise I will resolve NO.
- What I am trying to measure is the relative change in unemployment.
- If bridge construction is started (that market resolves YES) I will resolve N/A.
