Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 77.3%
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète1 juil. 25, 21:48 UTC31 déc. 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the HappyHorse-1.0 weights become publicly available before EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsNext Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
PolymarketNext Claude Opus Model (5.6+): Text Arena Debut?
PolymarketWill a state actor or other group succeed at stealing GPT-4 model weights by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Meta ever deploy its best LLM without releasing its model weights up through AGI?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Claude Opus's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the model weights for Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus are publicly available by December 31, 2030. "Publicly available" means that the complete model weights are accessible to the general public without significant restrictions, such as - Through an official release by Anthropic - A public torrent of a leak of the weights
- A "significant restriction" would be something like "X anon on Discord has a copy of the weights but is only providing them to close friends" or "You must go through XYZ 2-month approval process by Anthropic to receive access"
- Additional constraints: - It must be available for at least 7 days, but the market tracks the start date.
- So if it's available for 7 days starting December 30th, this will resolve YES.
- But if it was only ever available for 1 hour on Jan 12th 2027, and nobody made a known public reupload, the market would resolve NO - If the model architecture is particularly unconventional, associated inference code must be available, such that the knowledge of how to run the model isn't gate-kept
