By what date will all state-of-the-art general-purpose AI systems not be reasoning models?
IAOne-Off3a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle01.01.2030 59%En tête parmi 9 options
Prévisionnistes
2
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète10 oct. 25, 10:56 UTC1 janv. 30, 11:23 UTC
Tendances
Règles
This market is part of the paper: A Concrete Roadmap towards Safety Cases based on Chain-of-Thought Monitoring
- This market resolves based on whether, at each specified date, all models considered SOTA are not reasoning models.
- Reasoning Model Definition
- A "reasoning model" must meet all of the following criteria:
- It is a Language Model - The system must be able to input and output language.
- As an example of what would not count: AlphaGo
