By 2028 will there be another assassination attempt on Donald Trump?
Politique américaineOne-OffSportCriminalité et justiceGolf1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 60.9%
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
13 sept. 26, 11:12 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if there is another confirmed, deliberate assassination attempt on Donald Trump occurring between September 13, 2026, and December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time.
- To qualify for a YES resolution, an event must meet the following criteria:
- Target and Intent: The act must be a physical, deliberate attempt to take the life of Donald Trump.
- Lethal Means: The attempt must involve a weapon or method capable of causing death (e.g., firearms, explosives, poisoning, or direct physical assault).
- Official Characterization: The incident must be officially characterized as an "assassination attempt" or "attempted assassination" by a major U.S. federal or state law enforcement agency (such as the FBI, U.S. Secret Service, or Department of Justice), or result in federal charges explicitly for the attempted assassination of Donald Trump (e.g., under 18 U.S. Code § 1751).
