In 2050, who will think a Trump assassination attempt was a false flag? [Resolves to %]
PolitiqueManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleA streamer, influencer, or other vacuous media personality 75.3%En tête parmi 7 options
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète27 avr. 26, 00:39 UTC31 déc. 50, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Elon Musk reveal that the attempted assassination of Donald Trump on July 13, 2024 was a false flag?
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KalshiRègles
Longer form (canonical): In 2050, which of the listed sources will believe President Trump and/or his allies staged an assassination attempt against him?
- At some point in the year 2050, I will identify a member of each listed class and ask them whether they think any assassination attempt targeting Donald Trump during his presidency was an operation planned by Trump and/or his close allies.
- I will target people who I think have a low chance of being aware of this market.
- I will try to get them to land on a percentage chance.
- I will then resolve the answers to those percentages.
- If the subject is overall noncooperative, I will likely just choose another member of the class.
