Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies
One-OffMiddle EastGéopolitique3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 93.3%
Prévisionnistes
27
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 minutes
2 mars 26, 04:43 UTC1 janv. 27, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
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Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if, between now and December 31, 2026, the Assembly of Experts is hit by a US or Israeli attack and at least one cleric member dies as a result.
- Resolution will be based on credible reporting from major international news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera, etc.) confirming both the attack on the Assembly and at least one confirmed death of a member.
- The market resolves NO if no such attack occurs by the deadline, or if an attack occurs but no members are killed.
- The Assembly of Experts is the deliberative body empowered to appoint the Supreme Leader of Iran.
- The Assembly consists entirely of Shiite clerics who are popularly elected every eight years and whose candidacies are approved by the Guardian Council.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 93% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies sera-t-il résolu ?
- Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution Criteria