Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleExponential (similar to 2020 to 2026), indicates some proto-AGI likely in that timeframe 31%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard8 mars 26, 07:17 UTC31 déc. 33, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If Trump wins, will the US government enact legislation that significantly slows down AI progress?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?
Manifold MarketsPossible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketDeepSeek market share this week
KalshiRègles
Main factors for this
- Valuations + Revenues of Labs (OpenAI, Anthropic showing ~exponential growth in ARR and funding)
- Overall economic status (employment, GDP growth etc)
- Benchmarks (e.g. METR, ECI, AA) which have generally improved at a roughly constant rate with that rate increasing (roughly double) since mid 2024
- [image]Leaving Other for A. Sublinear (e.g. fraudulent, waste of money) bubble pops (idk FTX, NFT, type things).
- Though I think bubble popping similar to dot com might still be linear growth overall, just that the expectation of exponential leads to valuations popping, and other things like AI takeover (seems more aligned with Hyperexponential since we’re discussing AI progress rather than human progress) and or pausing AI development “early” idk, basically anything that doesn’t fit neatly into
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba-3.5pt84.6%
- Moonshot+4.7pt10.6%
- Z.ai+0.3pt1.9%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 410,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 56,4 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.4pt70%
- ChatGPT-0.8pt15%
- Gemini+0.1pt7%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,7 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt87%
- December 15,+1.0pt84%
- November 30,+6.0pt79%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 2.7%91%
- Above 4.5%+19.0pt41%
- Above 5.6%+10.0pt20%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 58,4 k €
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 22.7%99%
- Above 21.7%99%
- Above 23.6%-1.0pt95%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 70 k €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 résultats de plus
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Best AI this week
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Anthropic market share this week
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033 ?
- Manifold Markets cote Exponential (similar to 2020 to 2026), indicates some proto-AGI likely in that timeframe à 31% au 17 septembre 2026.
- Quand AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033 sera-t-il résolu ?
- AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033 doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2033.
- Comment AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Main factors for this