Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 23 juil. 2026, 16:00 UTC · politique pm-quality-2
Prévision communautaire actuelle<250 0.2%-0.1%En tête parmi 9 options
Prévisionnistes
33
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour avant-hier
Obsolète20 mai 26, 15:4731 déc. 26, 23:59
Tendances
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
500-9991%
Tendance du volume
$56917 juil.6j de données23 juil.
Marchés Associés
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277,8 €Oui: 23%MANIFOLD MARKETS
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MANIFOLD MARKETS
When will Beam Therapeutics submit a BLA for Risto-cel?
0 €before September: 10%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Orion (a device that promises to project artificial vision into the brains of blind people) approved for sale by the end of 2027?
0 €Oui: 29%FUTUUR
FUTUURWill Artificial wombs for premature babies be tested in humans by the end of 2026?
0 €Oui: 3%FUTUUR
FUTUURActifs dans ces sujets
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Resolves based on the consensus/best estimate of (suspected) deaths from the current Bundibugyo virus outbreak at the end of the epidemic, probably using numbers released by the WHO or on the Wikipedia page, unless there's good reason to believe that they have stopped updating these numbers reliably (this is probably unlikely).
- https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Ituri_Province_Ebola_epidemic
- If the epidemic expands into a pandemic or continues into 2027, the market will be extended as necessary.
- The "Other" category means any deaths total larger than the current buckets.
- I may add more higher buckets from the "Other" category as necessary (if you're new to Manifold, don't worry, if you bet on Other, your shares will automatically be transferred onto any new buckets split off, this is fine and normal).