Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 08:46 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle6000-7999 39%En tête parmi 11 options
Prévisionnistes
40
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+13.3 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète20 mai 26, 15:47 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
2026 Ebola epidemic case count?
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KalshiWill the VLA15 Lyme Disease vaccine "pass" its phase 3 human trial?
Manifold MarketsHantavirus vaccine in 2026?
PolymarketHow many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
KalshiWhen will Beam Therapeutics submit a BLA for Risto-cel?
KalshiRègles
Resolves based on the consensus/best estimate of (suspected) deaths from the current Bundibugyo virus outbreak at the end of the epidemic, probably using numbers released by the WHO or on the Wikipedia page, unless there's good reason to believe that they have stopped updating these numbers reliably (this is probably unlikely).
- https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Ituri_Province_Ebola_epidemic
- If the epidemic expands into a pandemic or continues into 2027, the market will be extended as necessary.
- The "Other" category means any deaths total larger than the current buckets.
- I may add more higher buckets from the "Other" category as necessary (if you're new to Manifold, don't worry, if you bet on Other, your shares will automatically be transferred onto any new buckets split off, this is fine and normal).