Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle20000-24999 20.7%En tête parmi 14 options
Prévisionnistes
23
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
-0.9 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 18 heures
Obsolète20 mai 26, 15:40 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Règles
Resolves based on the consensus/best estimate of the suspected case count at the end of the epidemic, probably using numbers released by the WHO or on the Wikipedia page, unless there's good reason to believe that they have stopped updating these numbers reliably (this is probably unlikely).
- https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Ituri_Province_Ebola_epidemic
- If the epidemic expands into a pandemic or continues into 2027, the market will be extended as necessary.
- The "Other" category means any case counts larger than the current buckets.
- I may add more higher buckets from the "Other" category as necessary (if you're new to Manifold, don't worry, if you bet on Other, your shares will automatically be transferred onto any new buckets split off, this is fine and normal).