Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 95%
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète21 déc. 25, 09:17 UTC30 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
KalshiGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
KalshiChina’s government budget balance in 2026
KalshiWill the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
Manifold MarketsWill president Trump mint the coin at any point during his administration?
Manifold MarketsWill two Democratic and two GOP Senators cosponsor an AI bill that mentions widespread job loss from AI before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRègles
If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating rises above 48% in 2026 AND Republicans retain control of both the House of Representatives and Senate after the midterms AND U.S. GDP growth is above 5% in any quarter between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) stays below 5% in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Sources from VoteHub, U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Resolves the same as Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpbullcasecombo/trumps-year-bull-dream-case/kxtrumpbullcasecombo-27dec
Comparaison des sources de prévision
Marchés ouverts
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+10.0pt64%
- No change-10.0pt35%
- 50+ bps increase+0.4pt1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 96,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.7%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 656,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 85,1 k €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above -0.2%+3.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 386 k €
- Volume 24h
- 25,6 k €
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt92%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-10.0pt80%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-20.0pt60%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+1.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-6.0pt30%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 29,4 k €
KALSHIState of the economy at the end of 2026
- Soft landing-5.7pt50.5%
- Overheating+11.8pt44.8%
- Stagflation-2.6pt2.9%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Canada GDP: July 2026 (MoM)
- US government budget balance in 2026
- US real GDP growth in 2034?
- China unemployment rate in August
- GDP growth in 2026
- Recession this year?
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour 2026 a dream year for trump? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 95% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand 2026 a dream year for trump? sera-t-il résolu ?
- 2026 a dream year for trump? doit être résolu le 30 décembre 2026.
- Comment 2026 a dream year for trump? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating rises above 48% in 2026 AND Republicans retain control of both the House of Representatives and Senate after the midterms AND U.S. GDP growth is above 5% in any quarter between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) stays below 5% in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Où 2026 a dream year for trump? est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur Kalshi.