KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Before Jan 1, 2027 14%En tête parmi 3 options
Qualité du marché
43 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
1,7 k €
Liquidité
1 k €
Faible liquiditéÉcart
7.0 pt
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 minutes
17 sept. 26, 00:00 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
0%
0%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketRègles
If federal legislation imposing an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care has become law after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A qualifying federal law must impose an enforceable standard requiring AI developers or deployers to take reasonable care, or equivalent precautions, to prevent or mitigate catastrophic harm from their models or systems.
- This means large-scale harm such as mass casualties, major disruption of critical infrastructure, or comparably severe economic or environmental damage; the law need not use the exact phrase "duty of care".
- Requiring a framework, audit, report, or shutdown control alone is insufficient.
- A framework qualifies only when the law makes the adequacy of the developer's precautions against catastrophic harm an enforceable obligation.
- Government enforcement or civil liability may enforce the duty.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba-3.5pt84.6%
- Moonshot+4.7pt10.6%
- Z.ai+0.3pt1.9%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 410,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 56,4 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.4pt70%
- ChatGPT-0.8pt15%
- Gemini+0.1pt7%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,7 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt87%
- December 15,+1.0pt84%
- November 30,+6.0pt79%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 2.7%91%
- Above 4.5%+19.0pt41%
- Above 5.6%+10.0pt20%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 58,4 k €
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 22.7%99%
- Above 21.7%99%
- Above 23.6%-1.0pt95%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 70 k €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 résultats de plus
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Best AI this week
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- OpenAI market share this week
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour When will a catastrophic AI duty of care become U.S. law? ?
- Kalshi cote Before Jan 1, 2027 à 14% au 17 septembre 2026.
- Quand When will a catastrophic AI duty of care become U.S. law? sera-t-il résolu ?
- When will a catastrophic AI duty of care become U.S. law? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment When will a catastrophic AI duty of care become U.S. law? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If federal legislation imposing an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care has become law after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.