Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?
5.7 pts (24h)One-OffPolíticaEuropeCrime & JusticeElección
PolymarketCerradoComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableEste mercado se resolvió: Yes
Resuelto: 9 jul 2026, 3:35
Resolución verificada por el proveedor
CoinRithm tiene evidencia del ganador y del momento de liquidación respaldada por el proveedor para este mercado.
Resultado Ganador
Yes
A 7 días
20%
A 24 horas
94%
ConsensoProbabilidad implícita actual
Sí 100%+0.1pt
Calidad del mercado
45 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
2,9 mil €
Liquidez
—
Liquidez desconocidaCompra / Venta
97.6% / 100.0%
Spread
2.4 pt
Spread moderadoCambio 7d
+80.8 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 53 días
Desactualizado19 ene 26, 20:2131 mar 26, 0:00
Cronología de Probabilidad
Yes100%
No0%
100%
0%
Reglas
On March 31, 2025, Marine Le Pen was sentenced to a five-year ban from public office for embezzlement of public funds, potentially blocking her from the 2027 presidential race.
- The appeal focuses on this penalty, with hearings currently scheduled to run from January 13 to February 12.
- You can read more about that here: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2026/01/13/understanding-marine-le-pen-s-crucial-appeals-trial_6749363_8.html.
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Paris Court of Appeal issues an initial appeal decision, lifting, annulling, suspending, or otherwise removing Marine Le Pen’s ineligibility penalty such that she is legally permitted to run for public office again, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This market will resolve immediately based on the first merits judgment rendered by the Paris Court of Appeal in this appeal, regardless of any subsequent appeals or legal proceedings.
