2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
One-OffPolíticaElecciónPolítica de EE. UU.Elecciones de mitad de mandato de EE. UU. 20261a
KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requeridoDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPunto medio del libro seleccionado
Democrats, 8 to 10% · —
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Precio guardado
Democrats, 8 to 10% 26.5%Líder entre 10 opciones
Democrats, 8 to 10% 26.5%Calidad del mercado
93 / 100
Alta calidadVolumen 24h
109,2 mil €
Interés abierto
2,5 M US$
Interés abierto altoCompra / Venta
— / —
Democrats, 8 to 10%Spread
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Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 minutos
4 feb 26, 15:00 UTC3 nov 27, 13:00 UTC
El gráfico y los cambios muestran probabilidades históricas guardadas, no el libro seleccionado en directo.
Tendencias
Fila seleccionada: punto medio del libro. Otras filas: referencias guardadas, posiblemente normalizadas; los cambios de 24h usan el historial guardado.
Condiciones de la plataforma
Fuente: Kalshi
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- Cierre anticipado:
- Sí
- Plazo de liquidación:
- 30m (informativo)
Profundidad de mercado · Democrats, 8 to 10%
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Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot?
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Kalshi2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
Polymarket2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
Manifold MarketsGeneric Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (10/23-10/30)?
KalshiWill there be a polling error of at least 5% in the 2026 generic ballot polling?
Manifold MarketsReglas
If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 8 and 10 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida mediante:the Clerk of the House
- The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
Reglas de cada resultado
- Democrats, 8 to 10%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 8 and 10 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 10 to 12%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 10 and 12 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 6 to 8%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 6 and 8 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 12 to 14%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 12 and 14 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 4 to 6%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 4 and 6 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Republicans win
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between -100 and 0 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 14 to 16%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 14 and 16 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 2 to 4%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 2 and 4 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 16% and above
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 16 and 100 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 0 to 2%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 0 and 2 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
