2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
One-OffPolíticaElecciónUS Politics1a
KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aproximadaProbabilidad implícita actualDemocrats, 8 to 10% 21.4%-1.0ptLíder entre 10 opciones
Calidad del mercado
78 / 100
Alta calidadVolumen 24h
5,7 mil €
Liquidez
430,7 mil €
Alta liquidezCompra / Venta
21.0% / 22.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Spread estrechoDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 24 minutos
4 feb 26, 15:003 nov 27, 13:59
Tendencias
Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero
Resultado elegido
Democrats, 6 to 8%22%
Comparar plataformas· Democrats, 8 to 10%
Ordenado por calidad de mercado, luego liquidez y volumen de 24 h| Plataforma | Calidad | Probabilidad | vs. referencia | Vol 24h | Liq | Actualidad | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiEsta páginaMejor en general | Alta | 24% | — | 5,7 mil € | 430,7 mil € | hace 24 minutos | |
 PredictIt87% de coincidencia · verificado | — | 25% | — | — | — | hace 24 minutos | Abrir → |
También disponible en PredictIt
What will be the national vote margin in the 2026 House midterms?
8m
25%
25%
0%
+5 resultados más
Retail prediction exchange
PREDICTITReglas
If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S.
- House of Representatives national popular vote is between -100 and 0 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election.
- The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
- No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.
Las probabilidades pueden diferir debido a diferentes estructuras de mercado, comisiones y grupos de participantes.
Operaciones grandes
$3.4k98.2%KALSHIDemocrats, 0 to 2% — Nohace 8 d
KALSHIDemocrats, 0 to 2% — Nohace 8 d$2.0k98.5%KALSHIDemocrats, 0 to 2% — Nohace 8 d
KALSHIDemocrats, 0 to 2% — Nohace 8 d$1.2k98.5%KALSHIDemocrats, 0 to 2% — Nohace 8 d
KALSHIDemocrats, 0 to 2% — Nohace 8 dTendencia de volumen
$6.5k2 jul26d de datos27 jul
Mercados Relacionados
Florida Republican Governor nominee?
661,9 mil €James Fishback: 3%KALSHI
KALSHI
Presidential Election Winner 2028
472 mil €JD Vance: 20%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
422,4 mil €Gavin Newsom: 19%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Ohio Governor winner?
347,3 mil €Vivek Ramaswamy: 51%KALSHI
KALSHI
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
198,3 mil €Gadi Eizenkot: 52%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
2028 Republican presidential nominee
192 mil €Donald J. Trump: 3%KALSHI
KALSHIActivos en estos temas
Noticias Relacionadas
Polymarket odds swing: Eizenkot hits 51% as Israel campaign kicks offBlockchain.News
Polymarket: Vance leads 2028 at 19.85% as pricing trend softensBlockchain.News
White House pushes Senate Democrats to take 'historic' crypto Clarity Act ethics dealCoindesk
Senate nears bipartisan CLARITY Act deal after ethics breakthroughCrypto News
White House agrees to ethics provisions in market structure billCointelegraph
Polymarket odds show Vance at 19.85% as Epstein files critique hits tapeBlockchain.NewsReglas
If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S.
- House of Representatives national popular vote is between -100 and 0 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election.
- The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
- No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.