PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoProbabilidad implícita actual
8-10 41%Líder entre 5 opcionesAjustado por margen: las cotizaciones brutas sumaban más del 100% y se normalizaron.
Calidad del mercado
59 / 100
Calidad mediaVolumen 24h
37,3 €
Liquidez
2,9 mil €
Liquidez mediaSpread
1.0 pt
Spread estrechoComentarios
0
Cambio 7d
-7.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 minutos
26 ago 26, 22:10 UTC30 sept 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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KalshiReglas
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
- Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized.
- Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
- A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
- This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized.
- If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volumen total
- 224,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 160,5 mil €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 344,9 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
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- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Claude go down on __ days in September??
- Polymarket cotiza 8-10 al 41% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Claude go down on __ days in September??
- Está previsto que Will Claude go down on __ days in September? se resuelva el 30 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Claude go down on __ days in September??
- Polymarket liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.