How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
4.0 pts (24h)PolíticaOne-OffUS PoliticsElección
PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosSin cotizaciones en vivo
Datos del 27 jul 2026, 16:40 UTC · política pm-quality-3
Probabilidad implícita actual4-6 79%-1.3ptLíder entre 6 opciones
Calidad del mercado
32 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
0 €
Liquidez
3,9 mil €
Liquidez mediaCompra / Venta
2.9% / 31.2%
Spread
28.3 pt
Spread amplioCambio 7d
-0.1 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 minutos
Tendencias
Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero
Resultado elegido
4-679%
Comparar plataformas· 3
Ordenado por calidad de mercado, luego liquidez y volumen de 24 h| Plataforma | Calidad | Probabilidad | vs. referencia | Vol 24h | Liq | Actualidad | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiMejor en general80% de coincidencia · verificado | Media | 24% | 0pt | 1,3 mil € | 177,5 mil € | hace 13 minutos | Abrir → |
| PolymarketEsta página | Baja | 79% | +55pt | 0 € | 3,9 mil € | hace 13 minutos |
También disponible en Kalshi
How many Senate Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?
2.0 pts3m
-1.0pt67%
-2.0pt24%
-1.9pt2%
+1 resultados más
62 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad
Volumen total377,5 mil €
Volumen 24h1,3 mil €
KALSHIReglas
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
- This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
- An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason.
- Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
- This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026.
- If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
Las probabilidades pueden diferir debido a diferentes estructuras de mercado, comisiones y grupos de participantes.
Tendencia de volumen
$633 jul19d de datos27 jul
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The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
- This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
- An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason.
- Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
- This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026.
- If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.