PolymarketCerradoComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableEste mercado se resolvió: 20-40 (100%)
Datos de resolución no verificados
Este resultado se infiere o no está respaldado por evidencia de liquidación de nivel proveedor.
Probabilidad implícita actual20-40 100%+2.1%Líder entre 5 opciones
Calidad del mercado
72 / 100
Calidad mediaVolumen 24h
7,4 mil €
Liquidez
0 €
Baja liquidezCompra / Venta
99.9% / 100.0%
Spread
0.1%
Spread estrechoCambio 7d
+16.4%
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 17 días
Desactualizado1 jun 26, 0:2730 jun 26, 16:00
Cronología de Probabilidad
10-200%
20-40100%
40-601%
60+0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Este mercado ha cerrado. El trading simulado solo está disponible en mercados abiertos.
Comparar plataformas· 20-40
Ordenado por calidad de mercado, luego liquidez y volumen de 24 h| Plataforma | Calidad | Probabilidad | vs. referencia | Vol 24h | Liq | Actualidad | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketMejor en general82% de coincidencia · vinculado | Alta | 100% | — | 30,8 mil € | 205,1 mil € | hace 16 minutos | Abrir → |
| PolymarketEsta página | Media | 100% | — | 7,4 mil € | 0 € | hace 17 días | |
 Manifold Markets82% de coincidencia · verificado | — | 100% | — | — | — | hace 15 días | Abrir → |
También disponible en Manifold Markets
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30? [Polymarket]
Cerrados
Resuelto
40+ (100%)
100%
0%
0%
Pronóstico comunitario17 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSTambién disponible en Polymarket
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
3.5%5d
+18.1%100%
+3.5%13%
+2.9%8%
+4 resultados más
89 • Alta calidadSpread moderadoAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución
Volumen total1,2 M €
Volumen 24h30,8 mil €
POLYMARKETReglas
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for June 30, 2026.
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
- This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized.
Las probabilidades pueden diferir debido a diferentes estructuras de mercado, comisiones y grupos de participantes.
Operaciones grandes
$5.4k96.9%POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoMoonLambo1205anteayer
POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoMoonLambo1205anteayer$1.4k98.0%POLYMARKETWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoArmageddonRewardsBillyhace 7 d
POLYMARKETWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoArmageddonRewardsBillyhace 7 d$2.6k51.8%POLYMARKETWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoValid-Profithace 12 d
POLYMARKETWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoValid-Profithace 12 d$8.6k85.0%POLYMARKETWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoMoonLambo1205hace 18 d
POLYMARKETWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoMoonLambo1205hace 18 d$3.5k99.9%POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — YesDoomsday77hace 19 d
POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — YesDoomsday77hace 19 d$2.7k99.9%POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — Yes0xd677…a495hace 19 d
POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — Yes0xd677…a495hace 19 d$3.9k88.5%POLYMARKETWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoArmageddonRewardsBillyhace 21 d
POLYMARKETWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoArmageddonRewardsBillyhace 21 d$1.4k95.6%POLYMARKETNoJasonPunoshace 25 d
POLYMARKETNoJasonPunoshace 25 dTendencia de volumen
$8.4k2 jul7d de datos8 jul
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This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for June 30, 2026.
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
- This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized.