Manifold MarketsCerradoSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoEste mercado se resolvió: 40+ (100%)
Resuelto: 10 jul 2026, 0:20
Datos de resolución no verificados
Este resultado se infiere o no está respaldado por evidencia de liquidación de nivel proveedor.
Pronóstico comunitario actual40+ 100%Líder entre 3 opciones
Pronosticadores
17
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 15 días
Desactualizado25 jun 26, 5:2910 jul 26, 0:20
Cronología de Probabilidad
40+100%
60+0%
80+0%
100%
0%
0%
Este mercado ha cerrado. El trading simulado solo está disponible en mercados abiertos.
Comparar plataformas· 40+
Ordenado por calidad de mercado, luego liquidez y volumen de 24 h| Plataforma | Calidad | Probabilidad | vs. referencia | Vol 24h | Liq | Actualidad | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketMejor en general85% de coincidencia · verificado | Alta | 108% | — | 29,3 mil € | 205 mil € | hace 12 minutos | Abrir → |
| Polymarket82% de coincidencia · verificado | Media | 100% | — | 7,4 mil € | 0 € | hace 17 días | Abrir → |
| Manifold MarketsEsta página | — | 100% | — | — | — | hace 15 días |
También disponible en Polymarket
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
2.8%5d
+18.1%100%
+2.8%12%
+2.0%8%
+4 resultados más
89 • Alta calidadSpread moderadoAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución
Volumen total1,2 M €
Volumen 24h29,3 mil €
POLYMARKETTambién disponible en Polymarket
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of June?
2.1%Cerrados
Resuelto
20-40 (100%)
+2.1%100%
0%
-0.3%0%
+2 resultados más
72 • Calidad mediaSpread estrechoBaja liquidez
Volumen total631,7 mil €
Volumen 24h7,4 mil €
POLYMARKETReglas
This market will resolve identically to this one, on Polymarket:
- Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?
- Polymarket rules: This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Las probabilidades pueden diferir debido a diferentes estructuras de mercado, comisiones y grupos de participantes.
Operaciones grandes
$5.4k96.9%POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoMoonLambo1205anteayer
POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoMoonLambo1205anteayer$1.4k98.0%POLYMARKETWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoArmageddonRewardsBillyhace 7 d
POLYMARKETWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoArmageddonRewardsBillyhace 7 d$2.6k51.8%POLYMARKETWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoValid-Profithace 12 d
POLYMARKETWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoValid-Profithace 12 d$8.6k85.0%POLYMARKETWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoMoonLambo1205hace 18 d
POLYMARKETWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoMoonLambo1205hace 18 d$3.5k99.9%POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — YesDoomsday77hace 19 d
POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — YesDoomsday77hace 19 d$2.7k99.9%POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — Yes0xd677…a495hace 19 d
POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — Yes0xd677…a495hace 19 d$3.9k88.5%POLYMARKETWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoArmageddonRewardsBillyhace 21 d
POLYMARKETWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoArmageddonRewardsBillyhace 21 d$1.4k95.6%POLYMARKETNoJasonPunoshace 25 d
POLYMARKETNoJasonPunoshace 25 dMercados Relacionados
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
2,3 M €July 18: 100%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
743,5 mil €August 31: 60%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
511,5 mil €Sí: 16%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
244,8 mil €Before Sep 1, 2026: 11%
KALSHI
KALSHI
What will Benjamin Netanyahu say during Sunday Morning Futures?
103,1 mil €Event does not qualify: 1%KALSHI
KALSHI
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/20 - 7/26)
36,2 mil €Above 60: 7%KALSHI
KALSHIActivos en estos temas
Noticias Relacionadas
Polymarket odds: Eizenkot jumps to 46% to lead Israel PM raceBlockchain.News
Polymarket: US invasion of Iran odds jump to 23.5% after Jordan base claimBlockchain.News
Polymarket lifts US-Iran invasion odds to 18.5% after blockade, strikesBlockchain.NewsPolymarket: Iran regime-fall odds dip to 9.5% despite escalation reportBlockchain.NewsPolymarket sees 55.5% odds for Iran blockade end by Aug. 31 after Trump jabBlockchain.News
US freezes $131M in Iran-linked crypto as Middle East tensions riseCointelegraphReglas
This market will resolve identically to this one, on Polymarket:
- Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?
- Polymarket rules: This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.