MyriadProbabilidad implícita actual
Sí 6.8%
Calidad del mercado
40 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
311,5 €
Liquidez
1,3 mil €
Baja liquidezCompra / Venta
-
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 minutos
17 dic 25, 15:0931 jul 26, 23:59
Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero
Resultado elegido
YES7%
Comparar plataformas· NO
Ordenado por volumen de 24h| Plataforma | Probabilidad | vs. referencia | Vol 24h | Liq | Actualidad | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MyriadEsta páginaMás activa | 93% | — | 311,5 € | 1,3 mil € | hace 7 minutos | |
 Manifold Markets | 92% | — | — | — | hace 7 minutos | Abrir → |
También disponible en Manifold Markets
Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire before August 1, 2026?
23d
8.3%
91.7%
Pronóstico comunitario109 pronosticadoresTipo: binary
Volumen total10,9 mil €
Volumen 24h0 €
MANIFOLD MARKETSReglas
**Market Dates:**
- - **Market Period:** From the publication date to July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. - **Market Close:** July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. - **Resolution Time:** This market will be resolved after the Market Close, or earlier if the outcome is reached.
- **Yes/No Criteria:**
- - Resolves to **"Yes"** if both Russia and Ukraine formally agree to a complete ceasefire through an official, publicly announced agreement before or at Resolution Time.
- The agreement must mandate a total cessation of all military operations—including but not limited to ground, air, naval, and cyber warfare—across all territories involved in the conflict (e.g., Ukraine, Russian-occupied territories, and border regions).
- Additionally, the ceasefire must be bilateral, with both Russia and Ukraine explicitly committing to halting all offensive and defensive military actions against each other, and it must apply to the entire conflict zone without geographic exceptions (e.g., it cannot exclude specific regions like Donbas or Crimea). - Resolves to **"No"** if all of the above conditions are not met before the Market Period ends
Las probabilidades pueden diferir debido a diferentes estructuras de mercado, comisiones y grupos de participantes.
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**Market Dates:**
- - **Market Period:** From the publication date to July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. - **Market Close:** July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. - **Resolution Time:** This market will be resolved after the Market Close, or earlier if the outcome is reached.
- **Yes/No Criteria:**
- - Resolves to **"Yes"** if both Russia and Ukraine formally agree to a complete ceasefire through an official, publicly announced agreement before or at Resolution Time.
- The agreement must mandate a total cessation of all military operations—including but not limited to ground, air, naval, and cyber warfare—across all territories involved in the conflict (e.g., Ukraine, Russian-occupied territories, and border regions).
- Additionally, the ceasefire must be bilateral, with both Russia and Ukraine explicitly committing to halting all offensive and defensive military actions against each other, and it must apply to the entire conflict zone without geographic exceptions (e.g., it cannot exclude specific regions like Donbas or Crimea). - Resolves to **"No"** if all of the above conditions are not met before the Market Period ends