Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 70.7%
Pronosticadores
13
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado22 mar 26, 3:03 UTC1 ene 27, 23:59 UTC
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Mercados Relacionados
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PolymarketReglas
Resolves YES if, by 11:59 PM PT on December 31, 2026, credible reporting confirms a generative AI system (e.g., LLM, VLM, VLA) autonomously authorized and executed a successful lethal strike against a human target without a human operator issuing the final execution command.
- Resolution Criteria:
- Full Autonomy: The AI independently identified the target and initiated the strike.
- (Note: If a human was monitoring "on-the-loop" but the AI executed the strike before they could or did intervene, this counts as YES).
- Generative Architecture: The system utilized a transformer-based or multimodal architecture capable of semantic reasoning.
- If the exact architecture is classified, credible reporting must explicitly describe the system as using generative AI, LLMs, VLMs, VLAs, or complex semantic reasoning.
Mercados abiertos
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- Volumen total
- 221,1 mil €
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- Claude+0.9pt69.6%
- ChatGPT-1.5pt12.8%
- Gemini+1.7pt8.8%
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- Claude-1.0pt89.8%
- ChatGPT1.9%
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- 155 mil €
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will we see the first lethal strike by generative AI before 2027??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 70.7% a fecha de 24 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will we see the first lethal strike by generative AI before 2027??
- Está previsto que Will we see the first lethal strike by generative AI before 2027? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will we see the first lethal strike by generative AI before 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves YES if, by 11:59 PM PT on December 31, 2026, credible reporting confirms a generative AI system (e.g., LLM, VLM, VLA) autonomously authorized and executed a successful lethal strike against a human target without a human operator issuing the final execution command.