Will Trump fire a Nuke into Iran before 2027?
2.8 pts (24h)PolíticaOne-OffOriente MedioDeportesCríquetGeopolíticaPolítica de EE. UU.1m
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 95.3%+2.8pt
Pronosticadores
4
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+45.3 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado2 nov 26, 9:43 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
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Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to Yes if, before January 1, 2027 (11:59:59 PM UTC), the United States military, acting under the executive authority or direct order of Donald Trump as President of the United States, detonates a nuclear weapon inside the internationally recognized sovereign territory or airspace of Iran.
- This market resolves to No if Donald Trump leaves office, ceases to be President, or if no such detonation occurs before January 1, 2027.
- Resolution will rely on official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense, the White House, or confirmation by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or United Nations Security Council, corroborated by multiple major news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press).
- Conventional strikes, cyber warfare, or covert sabotage of nuclear facilities do not qualify.
- The weapon must be an actual nuclear explosive device detonated inside Iran.
