¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will there be a commercially available LLM-based self-driving system by EoY 2030??

Manifold Markets cotiza No al 56.8% a fecha de 26 de octubre de 2026.

Will there be a commercially available LLM-based self-driving system by EoY 2030?

China IAOne-Off4a

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

No 56.8%

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binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

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Pronóstico

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Actualizado hace 6 horas

Desactualizado

24 sept 26, 20:27 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC

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Resultado24hProbabilidad

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Must either be available in a car a normal person could actually buy (<$1M USD), or in a ride-share program a normal person could actually use.

Only available in China or some other country is fine.
LLM-based means that the self-driving system relies on a (possibly heavily modified) LLM to make driving decisions.
A hybrid system where the LLM makes a subset of driving decisions would qualify.
For this question I'm defining LLM slightly generously - if the driving model itself is capable of reasoning about and responding to general user queries (including those having nothing to do with driving) via text, or is a modified variant of a model which could do so, I'll consider it an LLM.
Please ask clarifying questions!