Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 80.3%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 7 minutos
23 nov 23, 23:29 UTC1 ene 30, 7:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
"US government" includes all branches of federal and state government, including all executive departments (e.g. armed forces, Justice Department) and agencies responsible to them (e.g. FBI, NSA).
- "take control" means direct managerial authority of OpenAI or over its major technologies, or the exercise of such authority. "Control" does not need to be complete but must be dominant.
- If control of a major technology, the control should be somewhat exclusive.
- "major technologies" means frontier or near-frontier AI models, or otherwise unambiguously "major" technologies.
- I will use reasonable judgement to adjudicate edge cases.
- Examples that count:
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 80% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030??
- Está previsto que Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: "US government" includes all branches of federal and state government, including all executive departments (e.g. armed forces, Justice Department) and agencies responsible to them (e.g. FBI, NSA).