Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 96.6%
Pronosticadores
23
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 minutos
23 jun 26, 19:58 UTC23 sept 26, 19:56 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
PolymarketUNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
PolymarketIF the US re-enters the Iran deal by 2025 end THEN will Iran develop nuclear weapons by 2030?
Manifold MarketsCongress approves Iran deal in 2026?
Polymarket5th Fleet Stranded as result of Iran Deal?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026?
Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if the "Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding" (also referred to as the Versailles agreement), signed by the United States and Iran on June 17, 2026, remains active and holds through September 17, 2026 (exactly three months after its signing).
- The market will resolve to NO if any of the following events occur prior to 11:59 PM UTC on September 17, 2026:
- Either the United States or Iran formally withdraws from, terminates, or nullifies the memorandum of understanding (or any subsequent comprehensive peace treaty that officially replaces it).
- Direct, state-level military hostilities resume between the United States (or Israel) and Iranian military forces, such as resumed airstrikes on Iranian sovereign territory or direct military clashes in the Persian Gulf/Strait of Hormuz.
- Either country officially reinstates a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz or Iranian ports.
Mercados abiertos
Politics
KALSHINH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Stefany Shaheen+81.8pt100%
- Maura Sullivan-81.6pt0%
- Carleigh Beriont-2.7pt0%
- Volumen total
- 957,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 760,7 mil €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.2%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.2%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.1%
+45 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 183,7 M €
- Volumen 24h
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-3.0pt52.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.9pt45.5%
- Renan Santos1%
+16 resultados más
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+2.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-1.3pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.6pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-0.2pt37.1%
- Édouard Philippe32%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon12.4%
+38 resultados más
- Volumen total
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- NJ-07 House winner?
- IA-01 House winner?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the Iran deal hold over 3 months??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 97% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will the Iran deal hold over 3 months??
- Está previsto que Will the Iran deal hold over 3 months? se resuelva el 23 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will the Iran deal hold over 3 months??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria