Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026?
US PoliticsGeopolíticaMonthlyMiddle East21dManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 96.7%
Pronosticadores
30
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 44 minutos
26 mar 26, 8:39 UTC30 sept 26, 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria: Resolves YES if the US and Iran sign or formally announce a binding nuclear agreement (or equivalent framework deal endorsed by both governments) on or before September 30, 2026.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- Source signal: AP News (March 26, 2026): Trump claims Iran is eager to deal while Tehran dismisses his ceasefire plan.
- Both sides hardening positions; Iran grips Strait of Hormuz.
- AP-NORC poll: most Americans say US military action against Iran gone too far.
- Why this matters: A US-Iran nuclear deal would reshape 2026 geopolitics—oil prices, Middle East stability, US foreign policy.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 97% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026??
- Está previsto que Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026? se resuelva el 30 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria: Resolves YES if the US and Iran sign or formally announce a binding nuclear agreement (or equivalent framework deal endorsed by both governments) on or before September 30, 2026.