Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 63.4%
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69
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado18 abr 24, 16:09 UTC1 feb 40, 15:59 UTC
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Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsBy the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Manifold MarketsWill a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsNext Claude Opus released on?
PolymarketTime's Person of the Year for 2026
KalshiWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketReglas
AGI strictly refers to strong AI that surpasses or matches humans at every task.
- Any architecture that primarily relies on using next-token prediction, such as GPT 4 or Claude 3 would count as an LLM.
- Update 2026-08-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Agentic wrappers and harnesses (such as those handling tool calls, context management, or preloaded skills) do not prevent a system from counting as an LLM.
- The architecture will still be considered as relying on next-token prediction if its core intelligence is derived from the underlying model.
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 22+72.4pt74.5%
- September 23+11.6pt13.7%
- September 24+3.8pt4.9%
+13 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 269,8 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 199,9 mil €
KALSHITime's Person of the Year for 2026
- Zohran Mamdani-4.0pt27%
- Mark Carney-3.0pt19%
- Pope Leo XIV-7.0pt9%
+39 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,3 M €
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
+13 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 4,4 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 107,5 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.4pt70.3%
- ChatGPT-0.9pt13.9%
- Gemini-1.7pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 10,3 M €
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic-0.2pt99%
- OpenAI+0.6pt1%
- Meta0%
+18 resultados más
POLYMARKETAnthropic lab leak by which date?
- June 30, 2027-4.0pt7%
- December 31, 2026+0.2pt4%
- Volumen total
- 85 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 65,3 mil €
- Best AI this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Next GPT Sol Model (5.7+) released on?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Anthropic market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Next GPT Luna Model (5.7+) released on?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the first AGI be a large language model??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 63.4% a fecha de 22 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will the first AGI be a large language model??
- Está previsto que Will the first AGI be a large language model? se resuelva el 1 de febrero de 2040.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will the first AGI be a large language model??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: AGI strictly refers to strong AI that surpasses or matches humans at every task.