Pronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 60.1%
Pronosticadores
89
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado19 jun 25, 11:34 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI by OpenAI beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a large language model beat a super grandmaster at chess by EOY 2035?
Manifold Markets46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament Winner
PolymarketNext Prime Minister of Romania?
PolymarketWhich parties will be in next Swedish Government?
PolymarketReglas
The LLM must not be limited to only playing chess.
- For example, if an LLM can play chess and hold a conversation, it counts.
- However, it cannot make use of a non-LLM based chess engine, or non-LLM related computation, like a calculator or a python script.
- A super grandmaster has a FIDE Elo rating of 2700 or more.
- The super GM must be trying to win the game.
- The game format is unspecified.
Mercados abiertos
Sports
KALSHICharaeva vs Kenin
- Alina Charaeva+26.0pt75.8%
- Sofia Kenin-29.0pt24.2%
- Volumen total
- 2 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,9 M €
KALSHI2027 Pro Football Champion
- Los Angeles R11.7%
- Buffalo10.8%
- San Francisco8.1%
+29 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 113 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,9 M €
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Nflgame 26 SEP 21 Nyglar
- LAR+1.0pt72.8%
- NYG27.2%
- Volumen total
- 1,7 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,7 M €
POLYMARKETDota 2: Team Nemesis vs GamerLegion (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage
+33 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,5 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,5 M €
KALSHIKrejcikova vs Friedsam
- Barbora Krejcikova-8.0pt78%
- Anna-Lena Friedsam+4.0pt22%
- Volumen total
- 1,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,3 M €
KALSHIFedEx Open de France Winner
- Ludvig Åberg-2.1pt8.7%
- Tommy Fleetwood-0.2pt8.7%
- Matt Fitzpatrick-0.1pt7.8%
+97 resultados más
- Volumen total
- NFL 2026-27: Champion
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Team Cobra (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage
- Ole Miss vs Florida
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs 1win (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage
- MVP Winner?
- England vs Sri Lanka
- Pro Baseball Champion
- College Football National Championship Winner
- UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Pridankina vs Egorova
- Bouzkova vs Kartal
- Oklahoma St. vs West Virginia: Spread
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 60.1% a fecha de 22 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028??
- Está previsto que Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: The LLM must not be limited to only playing chess.